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Week 4 NFL Picks and Discussion Thread!

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Week 4 NFL Picks and Discussion Thread!

Postby Everlong » Sep 25, '18, 12:44 pm

Week four. Hard to believe we’ll be a quarter of the way through the year after this one is over. After this week, we should be starting to get a decent sense of who some of these teams are. But again, it’ll still only be September, so anything can happen the rest of the way.

Here are my picks.

GAME OF THE WEEK – THURSDAY NIGHT – Minnesota Vikings (1-1-1) at Los Angeles Rams (3-0), LAR by 6.5 – I have to believe the Vikings are a better team than what showed up against Buffalo. It was a classic trap game… coming off a long, overtime grinder against a division rival to play at home against what people thought to be the worst team in the league. Perhaps they were looking ahead four days. But regardless, it’s a tall task they have in Los Angeles on Thursday night. The Rams are looking like the class of the NFC at the moment, and are living up to every bit of hype there was for them this offseason. It’ll be interesting to see if the Vikings’ vaunted defense is capable of slowing down that offensive juggernaut. But as always, Thursday night game, always pick the home team. Rams 30, Vikings 20

Miami Dolphins (3-0) at New England Patriots (1-2), NE by 7 – The Patriots have had slow starts in September before, and every time they come back and contend at the end of the year. If they lose this game then maybe I’ll start to think this year is different… MAYBE. But right now, you’re foolish if you’re counting them out. The Dolphins have had an unexpected unblemished record to start the season, but going into New England against a Patriots team that’s lost two straight games is probably not going to turn out so well for them. Patriots 31, Dolphins 19

Houston Texans (0-3) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2), IND by 1 – JJ Watt and Deshaun Watson both had monster games against the Giants, but the Texans still found a way to lose. Playing on the road against Indianapolis, this one could be make or break for their season. Colts 23, Texans 17

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2), ATL by 6 – Interesting matchup here. The Falcons finally got their offense off the ground against New Orleans, but it wasn’t enough, as their defense got torched. I’m going to take them just because they’re the home team, but it wouldn’t stun me to see the Bengals come in and snag an upset. Falcons 27, Bengals 24

Buffalo Bills (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (1-1-1), GB by 10 – I don’t think the Bills will catch the Packers by surprise like they did with Minnesota last week. That being said, while I think the Packers will win, I don’t think it’s going to be a very convincing outing for them. They’ll get off to another slow start, and Aaron Rodgers will get just enough done to propel them to victory, giving them a 2-1-1 record, but not giving the fans any reason to relax quite yet. Packers 33, Bills 17

Detroit Lions (1-2) at Dallas Cowboys (1-2), DAL by 3 – It’s almost like Matt Patricia skipped game planning for the first two weeks to give the Patriots everything he had. That being said, coming into this year I’d have picked the Lions to go farther/do better than the Cowboys, and I’m sticking to that. UPSET! – Lions 23, Cowboys 14

New York Jets (1-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1), JAX by 7.5 – It was an ugly loss for the Jaguars against Tennessee, but the Titans have really had Jacksonville’s number lately, winning what I believe is five out of the last six against them. They’ll pick things up this week with a Jets team that has been unraveling since its surprising week one stomping of Detroit. Jaguars 27, Jets 10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) at Chicago Bears (2-1), CHI by 3 – Going to be interesting to see what happens in Tampa this week. Jameis Winston is eligible to return, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has become the first QB in NFL history to have three consecutive 400+ yard games. I gotta think Tampa rides the hot hand one more week, considering they have a bye in week five. Delay that decision one more week. Meanwhile, the Bears have a top 5 defense in the league, but a piss poor offense. The Bears truly are back. UPSET! – Bucs 19, Bears 13

Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) at Tennessee Titans (2-1), PHI by 3.5 – This could be a tough matchup for both teams, but I just trust what the Eagles have much more than what the Titans have. Tennessee’s still adjusting to a new head coach, is down a starting QB and pro bowl TE and doesn’t have nearly the weapons that Philly does. Eagles 24, Titans 20

Seattle Seahawks (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (0-3), SEA by 3 – Josh Rosen gets his first NFL start this week, but I have a hard time believing he’ll manage to pull it off. This Cardinals team is looking flat out bad. Seahawks 20, Cardinals 16

Cleveland Browns (1-1-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-3), OAK by 2.5 – The Browns also have a top five defense so far this year, and Baker Mayfield has injected some life into this team. Call me a fool for buying into the hype, but with as lifeless as the Raiders look at the moment, FUCK IT LEGGO BROWNIES UPSET! – Browns 23, Raiders 16

San Francisco 49ers (1-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-2), LAC by 10.5 – Jimmy G out for the year with a torn ACL. RIP 49ers’ season. Chargers 27, 49ers 12

New Orleans Saints (2-1) at New York Giants (1-2), NO by 3.5 – Good news Giants fans, your team has almost equaled its win total from last year! Bad news… you’re taking on a red-hot Drew Brees, and this Saints team hasn’t had the same struggles it used to have on the road for a couple years now. Saints 33, Giants 20

Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1-1), PIT by 3 – The Steelers came to life in week three, but still almost gave up the game to the Buccaneers. The Ravens, meanwhile, are playing some gritty football. These matchups between the two always come down to the wire, and the Steelers definitely have the homefield advantage. But my gut is telling me the Ravens are made of tougher stuff than the Steelers are this year. UPSET! – Ravens 20, Steelers 17

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) at Denver Broncos (1-2), KC by 5 – There are only three undefeated teams left after week three, and the Chiefs might be the best looking team of them all. Patrick Mahomes is having an incomprehensibly good start to his career as a starter in the NFL. Denver will certainly put up a fight in prime time, at least for some of the game, but so far this Chiefs offense has showed no signs of slowing down. Chiefs 34, Broncos 17

BYES: Carolina Panthers, Washington
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Re: Week 4 NFL Picks and Discussion Thread!

Postby The Legend » Sep 26, '18, 10:57 am

GAME OF THE WEEK – THURSDAY NIGHT – Minnesota Vikings (1-1-1) at Los Angeles Rams (3-0), LAR by 6.5 – Even if you buy into the thought that the Vikings loss to the Bills and the way they got dismantled was an anomaly and you buy that it was a trap game before a headline contest on a short week, it's hard not to consider Minnesota the biggest disappointment in the NFL one month into the season. This should be a possible NFC Championship preview, but it's hard to consider it that with the way the Vikings are playing right now. The Rams on the other hand are firing on all cylinders and might have the best offense and the best defense in the NFL this year, that's going to be too hard for Minnesota to stop on the road and a short week. LA Rams 28, Minnesota Vikings 18

Miami Dolphins (3-0) at New England Patriots (1-2), NE by 7 – The Patriots may come back to contend in the AFC this year, in fact I'd pretty much bet on it considering what trash the conference has become this season (it might be the worst conference in the history of the NFL). However, things are already different in New England. In Week 2 the Patriots weren't ready to compete in the biggest game of their season on a physical level. Then Belichick turns around and gets out coached by one of his disciples the very next week. It's not just that they've lost, but how they've lost that must have New England nervous. Miami has shown toughness and grit to battle four quarters and win tight games, until the Patriots prove they'll do that this year I won't bet on them. UPSET!!! Miami Dolphins 26, New England Patriots 20

Houston Texans (0-3) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2), IND by 1 – A divisional contest between the division's two weakest teams, home team should be heavily favored, but I feel like Houston should be better than they've played to this point in the season. Neither result would really surprise me, wouldn't even shock me for either team to blow out the other. I'll take Indy, but I don't feel great about it. Indy Colts 24, Houston Texans 23

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2), ATL by 6 – I feel like this game could be a course correction for both teams. The Bengals got off to a red hot start, but started to come back to earth with last week's trip to Carolina. Now another trip to an NFC South team is on the docket. Atlanta hasn't gotten off to the best start, but thanks to winning the first divisional contest of the year would get right back on track by beating the Bengals. I think they'll do it. Atlanta Falcons 28, Cincy Bengals 26

Buffalo Bills (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (1-1-1), GB by 10 – Well, Buffalo escaped the notoriety of an 0-16 season, leaving just three teams facing that unwanted attention. And rookie QB Josh Allen looked damn good in dispatching of the Vikings. Can they go on the road again and beat a Packers squad and Aaron Rodgers? Of course not. On a related note, Mr. Rodgers, this fantasy owner requests that you start throwing the damn ball to Jimmy Graham!! Has there ever been a case of lightning quick evaporation of talent as there is with Jimmy Graham? The guy looked like the best tight end ever in New Orleans, but since it's been a trainwreck. GB Packers 27, Buffalo Bills 21

Detroit Lions (1-2) at Dallas Cowboys (1-2), DAL by 3 – Detroit looked fantastic last week. Of course, that probably is because they played like it was the Super Bowl and New England played like it was an extension of the preseason. I expect the Lions to snap back to reality this week. And reality is this could be a game that sets football back a century. Neither of these teams are any good, neither has any playmakers (outside of Zeke Elliott, but everyone knows he's getting the ball almost every play). This could be a shockingly low scorer. Dallas Cowboys 14, Detroit Lions 13

New York Jets (1-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1), JAX by 7.5 – Remember when everyone was freaking out and trying to get Sam Darnold's gold jacket measurements after one game? Yeah, neither do I, he's still the same turnover quarterback in the pros that he was in college. Jacksonville's defense is going to get to feast all day long. Jacksonville Jaguars 21, NY Jets 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) at Chicago Bears (2-1), CHI by 3 – A battle of two surprising division leaders. I would have figured both of these teams would be square at the bottom of their respective divisions to start the year. However, the acquisition of Khalil Mack has transformed the Bears to a fearsome defense that's forcing turnovers and Ryan Fitzmagic is still flying high, even after losing for the first time this season. I think Chicago will build off what Pittsburgh did in the first half to force turnovers and that will be the difference. Chicago Bears 24, TB Buccaneers 23

Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at Tennessee Titans (2-1), PHI by 3.5 – This to me is probably the best game of the weekend. Tennessee's defense is legit and they should prove a real test for Carson Wentz and his repaired knee. Just a note @Everlong the Eagles aren't undefeated, they lost in Week 2. Philly is starting to play better with Wentz in, but they are still without a really good test. Going on the road would be a good test for Wentz and the Eagles and I think they will pass it. Philly Eagles 20, Tennessee Titans 17

Seattle Seahawks (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (0-3), SEA by 3 – Man the NFC West is terrible. Outside of the Rams they might have the three worst teams in the NFC in one division. This might be Arizona's best shot at a win early on, but I just don't see it. Seattle Seahawks 21, Arizona Cardinals 14

Cleveland Browns (1-1-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-3), OAK by 2.5 – Baker Mayfield looked great in helping to snap the Browns 19-game winless streak. But, there is no easier appearance for a rookie QB than making a relief appearance on a short week when there's no real game footage for the defense to study. It gets harder from here, but Mayfield has a chance to be up to the task. He certainly inspired confidence and injected some magic into the stadium. Drawing the Raiders and their rudderless ship is a good first start for Baker and I'll take the Browns to do something they haven't done since early November of 2014 -- win back-to-back games. UPSET!!! Cleveland Browns 24, Oakland Raiders 20

San Francisco 49ers (1-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-2), LAC by 10.5 – No Jimmy G, no chance for the Niners. L.A.'s also ran team has been able to post points in bunches this year and San Francisco won't be able to keep up with the Chargers. LA Chargers 34, SF Niners 17

New Orleans Saints (2-1) at New York Giants (1-2), NO by 3.5 – Child please. NO Saints 27, NY Giants 24

Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1-1), PIT by 3 – This game could shape the AFC North playoff race for the rest of the season. Pittsburgh started to improve, particularly on defense in its last game against Tampa, but the offense still leaves questions without Bell. And Baltimore has had a defensive renaissance this season to go along with a rejuvenated Joe Flacco as well. Give me the road upset in a battle of two teams that will earn at least a share of the division lead with a victory. UPSET!!! Baltimore Ravens 30, Pittsburgh Steelers 24

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) at Denver Broncos (2-1), KC by 5 – Finally, we round out an excellent week of prime time games with two teams with a winning record. Baltimore's offense exposed Denver's defense a bit last week, but the Broncos are still pretty good. The Chiefs continue to score points at an alarming rate with Patrick Mahomes looking brilliant and erasing any doubt that Kansas City should have made him the starter and move on from Alex Smith. Give me the Chiefs in a highly entertaining game on Monday night. KC Chiefs 31, Denver Broncos 27
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Re: Week 4 NFL Picks and Discussion Thread!

Postby xgamr » Sep 27, '18, 4:44 am

AME OF THE WEEK – THURSDAY NIGHT – Minnesota Vikings (1-1-1) at Los Angeles Rams (3-0), LAR by 6.5 –Rams

Miami Dolphins (3-0) at New England Patriots (1-2), NE by 7 – Patriots

Houston Texans (0-3) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2), IND by 1 – UPSET Texans

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2), ATL by 6 – Falcons

Buffalo Bills (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (1-1-1), GB by 10 – Packers

Detroit Lions (1-2) at Dallas Cowboys (1-2), DAL by 3 – UPSET Lions

New York Jets (1-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1), JAX by 7.5 – Jags

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) at Chicago Bears (2-1), CHI by 3 – UPSET Bucs

Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) at Tennessee Titans (2-1), PHI by 3.5 – Eagles

Seattle Seahawks (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (0-3), SEA by 3 – Seahawks

Cleveland Browns (1-1-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-3), OAK by 2.5 – UPSET Browns

San Francisco 49ers (1-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-2), LAC by 10.5 – Chargers

New Orleans Saints (2-1) at New York Giants (1-2), NO by 3.5 – Saints

Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1-1), PIT by 3 –Steelers

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) at Denver Broncos (1-2), KC by 5 – Chiefs
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Re: Week 4 NFL Picks and Discussion Thread!

Postby Messiah » Sep 30, '18, 10:44 am

GAME OF THE WEEK – THURSDAY NIGHT – Minnesota Vikings (1-1-1) at Los Angeles Rams (3-0), LAR by 6.5 – NO PICK.

Miami Dolphins (3-0) at New England Patriots (1-2), NE by 7 – A lot of people are giving the Patriots the benefit of the doubt and rightfully so - they have earned it. But I'm not so sure. They have had issues before, but it would usually be because the defense is inept and needed time to gel. The offense for the Patriots simply hasn't been good enough. The eventual return of Edelman and debut of Gordon should help open up the offense, but it won't happen this game (Gordon is making his debut, so there is that). I like the Dolphins. I've always been a fan of Adam Gase as HC and they play sound, team football. Risky pick but I'm liking Miami. UPSET!Dolphins 27, Patriots 24

Houston Texans (0-3) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2), IND by 1 – Texans lost at home... to the Giants... and for most of the game, it wasn't even close. I really want to pick the Texans here because they are bound to win a game, but I don't think it happens here. Colts 23, Texans 20

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2), ATL by 6 – This should be a good game. I like the Bengals here to bounce-back after a tough loss to the Panthers. Falcons have SO many injuries on the defensive side, Dalton should have a good game. A 1-3 start for the Falcons in the NFC South could be killer to their postseason hopes. UPSET!Bengals 38, Falcons 31

Buffalo Bills (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (1-1-1), GB by 10 – I'm worried about the Packers. They have had slow starts before, but the Redskins put a beating on them. They should win here, but if Rodgers isn't going to heal by the end of the season, what are their chances in a tough NFC? Packers 20, Bills 7

Detroit Lions (1-2) at Dallas Cowboys (1-2), DAL by 3 – Ahh... I'm not sure. The Cowboys have a good defense so I think they can stifle the Lions, but that offense is bleh. I'll take the home team Cowboys after some Stafford turnovers. Cowboys 23, Lions 14

New York Jets (1-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1), JAX by 7.5 – Def the Jags. Jaguars 27, Jets 16

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) at Chicago Bears (2-1), CHI by 3 – Damn, this is a tough one. Nobody should believe in Fitzpatrick long-term, but the Bears offense is pitiful. Trubisky can't read the field. I'll take the Bucs to move to a shocking 3-1. UPSET!Buccaneers 20, Bears 13

Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) at Tennessee Titans (2-1), PHI by 3.5 – I had to do a double-take because I was pretty sure the Eagles lost to the Bucs, which they did haha. Anyway I'm gonna take the Titans here to pull off the upset. They've done well in the face of injuries so far and I'm just liking them right now. They are a tough, nitty gritty team. UPSET!Titans 24, Eagles 23

Seattle Seahawks (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (0-3), SEA by 3 – Cardinals suck. Seahawks 30, Cardinals 14

Cleveland Browns (1-1-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-3), OAK by 2.5 – If Raiders lose this one LOL. Raiders 26, Browns 23

San Francisco 49ers (1-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-2), LAC by 10.5 – If Chargers lose this one LOL. Chargers 34, 49ers 10

New Orleans Saints (2-1) at New York Giants (1-2), NO by 3.5 – I could totally see the Giants winning. They are at home and the Saints defense is pitiful. Safe bet are the Saints, but who knows. Fuck it I'm going with the upset because why not? UPSET!Giants 43, Saints 41

Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1-1), PIT by 3 – Who knows when these two teams play each other. Steelers 27, Ravens 22

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) at Denver Broncos (1-2), KC by 5 – Chiefs should be able to win this without much trouble. Broncos defense will certainly give them fits, but who thinks the Broncos will actually do anything on offense? Chiefs 20, Broncos 17
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Re: Week 4 NFL Picks and Discussion Thread!

Postby Messiah » Sep 30, '18, 12:15 pm

Bucs are terrible LMAO
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Re: Week 4 NFL Picks and Discussion Thread!

Postby The Legend » Sep 30, '18, 5:47 pm

My heart isn't going to survive this Browns season. And Cleveland got totally screwed by the officials.
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Re: Week 4 NFL Picks and Discussion Thread!

Postby Everlong » Oct 01, '18, 6:05 am

Refs this year have just been awful in general. Feel bad for the Browns yesterday.

Also @Messiah I really don't understand the Bucs at all this year. Wtf were the first three weeks all about? Weirdest fluke start to a season I can remember in some time.
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Re: Week 4 NFL Picks and Discussion Thread!

Postby Messiah » Oct 01, '18, 10:37 am

Everlong wrote:Refs this year have just been awful in general. Feel bad for the Browns yesterday.

Also @Messiah I really don't understand the Bucs at all this year. Wtf were the first three weeks all about? Weirdest fluke start to a season I can remember in some time.


To be fair, their defense has been getting shredded every game. So that part of yesterday doesn't surprise me. And when you think about it, this was the first good defense the Bucs had to play all year (Eagles have REALLY regressed in that regard). So there were signs this could happen, but still crazy they let the Bears offense do that to them.
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Re: Week 4 NFL Picks and Discussion Thread!

Postby Everlong » Oct 02, '18, 8:03 pm

Messiah: 12-4, hit two upsets
The Legend: 11-5, hit one upset
Everlong: 10-6, hit one upset
Xgamr: 10-6, hit one upset
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