I have no idea how many people to expect in this year’s picks contest, but I’ll be damned if I stop making the picks now… this is the 15th year I’m doing it for WWE-Club/PubTalk/SquaredCircle. That’s half my life spent making NFL picks on a wrestling forum!
I’m probably more excited for football season than I’ve been in a long time, largely due to the changes that occurred in Green Bay this offseason. I’m fired up, and ready for some football. Let’s do this!
GAME OF THE WEEK – THURSDAY NIGHT – Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles, PHI by 2.5 – This may or may not end up being the best actual football game of the week, but there’s always something special about the opening night game—the atmosphere is electric, the champs get to raise their banner, and we finally… FINALLY have meaningful football again. It’s still TBD at the time of me writing this who will get the start for the Eagles. Carson Wentz still isn’t all the way back from his knee surgery, and Nick Foles has been banged up during the preseason as well. The best bet is that Foles is getting the start.
The Falcons lacked the same offensive magic they had in 2016 during the 2017 season, but still toughed out a road playoff win against a good Los Angeles squad last year. They’re fully capable of coming into Philly and playing spoiler, but rarely does the defending champ lose that opening night contest—they’ve got the advantage due to the atmosphere, and I’ll take Philly as a result. Eagles 23, Falcons 20
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns, PIT by 4 – You know, if the Browns had someone other than Hue Jackson as their coach and Jimmy Haslam as their owner, I’d say it’s starting to look like they might be turning a corner. The John Dorsey hire was a great one, and they seem to have brought in some good pieces this offseason. Plus, they finally have Josh Gordon fully back. That being said, this is still a Hue Jackson-lead team, and the Steelers have fully owned the Browns since they returned 19 years ago. I don’t see anything changing in that regard this season. Steelers 27, Browns 10
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings, MIN by 6 – This could be another game of the week contender if the 49ers keep up the momentum they had at the end of the season last year. Still, you know the Vikings are going to come out hot and ready to put the embarrassing end to their 2017 season behind them. This team is even more loaded than it was last year, and while I don’t believe Kirk Cousins will be a world-beater, the rest of this team is too damn good for me to be picking against them very often this season. Vikings 24, 49ers 13
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts, IND by 3 – Really looking forward to seeing how Andrew Luck fares in his long-awaited return to the football field. If he’s back to his pre-injury self, the Colts suddenly become a contender to win that division again. The Bengals have been on the decline the last couple years after five consecutive playoff berths, and there’s no reason to think things will be anything other than stagnant unless they get significantly better coaching and quarterback play. Their defense also needs to live up to the billing it gets seemingly every preseason. Colts 27, Bengals 20
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens, BAL by 7 – The Bills needed to move on from Tyrod Taylor. That much was clear after the shitshow of a performance he put on against the Jaguars in the playoffs in January. However, Nathan Peterman is an objectively worse player, and I don’t believe in Josh Allen a single bit. I think the Bills are in a bad place right now—they’ve hitched their franchise to a QB prospect who’s more likely to bust than boom, and don’t have a capable veteran who can at least keep the team afloat. They could very well finish last in the division this year after having their first playoff berth of the century last year. Meanwhile, expect a little more of the same from the Ravens—solid defense, mediocre offense, and bungling opportunities to be a real contender for a playoff spot themselves. Ravens 20, Bills 9
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants, JAX by 3 – The Tom Coughlin Bowl! Pat Shurmur isn’t the most inspired head choice for a head coach, but then again, it’s hard to judge a man based on a failure in Cleveland, the actual birthplace of sports failure in America. Still, the Giants were sunk by the abysmal coaching of Ben McAdoo last year. With a new voice, the return of their best offensive player in OBJ and an easier schedule than they had last year, the Giants could get right back into the thick of the NFC East race this year. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are a team right on the precipice. Almost all the key places from their run last year remain in place. They’re going to continue playing smashmouth football with a swagger, and I expect this game to be a tone setter for their season. Jaguars 27, Giants 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints, NO by 9.5 – The Buccaneers’ rapist quarterback is suspended for several games for sexual assault, but don’t worry—he’ll be back long before Colin Kaepernick ever sees an NFL field again. Saints should take this one without much trouble. Saints 33, Bucs 10
Houston Texans at New England Patriots, NE by 6 – Really hoping JJ Watt stays healthy, as this could finally be the first year we truly see a full powered Watt/Clowney combo in Houston. That could really tear up the AFC. And if Deshaun Watson stays healthy and continues building on what he showed in his limited run last year… this could be a fun Texans team to watch. While the Patriots are prone to early-season snafus, we’re still taking about the Patriots at home. The smart money is always going to be on them. Patriots 30, Texans 24
Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans, TEN by 1.5 – Boy, it doesn’t get a whole lot blander than these two teams in the NFL at the moment. This is a make or break year for Ryan Tannehill coming off a season-ending knee surgery last year that forced the Dolphins to go out and fetch the corpse of Jay Cutler. The Titans managed a stunning playoff upset last year, but still fired their coach in the offseason in favor of the relatively untested Mike Vrabel. Both of these teams are unknowns, and I’m in need of a few upset picks, so this spot seems to be as good as any. UPSET! – Dolphins 20, Titans 17
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers, LAC by 3 – I like the Chargers to compete for a playoff spot this year, but I like the Chiefs to win the division. The Chargers have essentially zero homefield advantage—even less than they did in San Diego. Andy Reid’s teams tend to get off to hot starts, so give me Kansas City in this one. UPSET! – Chiefs 30, Chargers 20
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos, DEN by 2.5 – Boy, how these two teams have fallen since their Super Bowl matchup five years ago. The Legion of Boom has packed up and left town. The Broncos’ no-flight zone is no longer intimidating, and their record-breaking offense has completely disappeared except for Demaryious Thomas, who now has Case Keenum throwing him footballs. I don’t see either of these teams in the playoffs, honestly, and it’s a difficult choice here because neither of these teams has any clear matchup advantage over the other. When in doubt, pick the team with the top-five QB. UPSET! – Seahawks 27, Broncos 23
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers, CAR by 3 – This could be a really fun game to watch. The Panthers played some solid football last year, and the Cowboys struggled mightily as Dak Prescott came crashing back to earth after a stellar rookie season. Playing in Carolina, I have to give the Panthers the homefield advantage. I’m looking forward to seeing how they utilize Christian McCaffrey now that he’s truly the star of the show in the backfield. There could be some exciting offensive stuff happening there. Panthers 24, Cowboys 20
Washington at Arizona Cardinals, PUSH – Tough to know what to expect from both of these teams. How long will it be before Sam Bradford either gets injured or pulled in favor of Josh Rosen? Does Washington really have enough firepower on either side of the ball to make a push in the NFC East? Will Arizona’s defense be enough to push for a wild card spot in the NFC? Tough call. But give me Washington to take down a team that’s in transition with a new coach and an up-in-the-air QB situation. Washington 23, Cardinals 16
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers, GB by 7.5 – The Bears may have gotten Khalil Mack, but they’ll still be lucky to escape the cellar of a stacked NFC North this season. With Aaron Rodgers returning, the Packers are automatically Super Bowl contenders. But what’s going to be more interesting to watch this season with the Packers is their defense. Finally gone is Dom Capers, whose defense was figured out about seven years ago by every competent offensive coordinator in the league. New is the feisty Mike Pettine. The Packers also did some big-time work on improving what was their weakest position on the field the last two years: cornerback. Now, it’s suddenly a strength, with a pair of extremely promising rookies, a returning promising second-year player and a free agent return of Tramon Williams, PFF’s highest-graded nickel corner of the last year. The Packers have actually had a pretty solid front seven the last couple years, and one of the league’s best defensive lines. Now they might actually have a competent secondary to go with it. That’s not good news for the rest of the NFC North, and it’s hard for me to have any faith that Mitch Trubisky has so drastically improved over his 2017 performance that he will resemble a franchise quarterback this year. Packers 33, Bears 16
New York Jets at Detroit Lions, DET by 6.5 – While I’m excited to see what the Jets can do under Sam Darnold’s leadership this year, the Lions are a much more seasoned team that’s better on both sides of the ball. Lions 27, Jets 13
Los Angeles Rams at Oakland Raiders, LAR by 4.5 – Jon Gruden, what is you doing baby? As much as I wanted him to succeed, everything leading up to the season looks like an absolute disaster right now in Oakland… but I guess that’s why they play the games. The Rams may have won the offseason with regard to player acquisition, putting big-time investments into both sides of the ball. Their roster is even more stacked now than it was last year. They could be a lot of fun to watch this year. Rams 37, Raiders 14